Yesterday in the Big Brother 2015 house, Head of Household Vanessa Rousso named a replacement nominee: Julia Nolan. Many fans have been screaming “evict Julia!” We agree Julia needs to leave sooner rather than later. However, is this really the right way or time to take her out of the Big Brother 17 game?
Julia is part of the three headed Austwins monster. She may not be the most physical competitor, but she is a vote that will always go with Austin Matelson and Liz Nolan. Thursday, Big Brother 17’s final eight become the final six. If Austin, Liz, and Julia survive double eviction, they represent half of the house. This is not good for the opposition.
We definitely think Vanessa should have nominated either Liz or Austin as the replacement nominee this week. Then the remaining houseguests could have blindsided all of them this week with an eviction. Next, they could have worked to secure another one left this week, leaving Julia as the only remaining member of Austwins. However, this did not happen, and taking out Julia feels almost as much of a waste of an HOH as taking out Meg Maley.
Going into this week’s double eviction, Austin is becoming more and more comfortable about working with Steve Moses, Vanessa, and John “Johnny Mac” McGuire. This means he won’t be fighting that hard in the Head of Household competition. If you take out Julia, both Liz and him will know that they are next. They will fight extremely hard both in the HoH competition and Veto one.
Liz probably won’t win the HOH competition, because it is most likely one of those recall Big Brother events ones. However, Austin has a really good chance at winning it. He almost won the Head of Household title at the last double eviction, which was another mental one.
If you are Steve and John, who could be the ultimate ones to pull the trigger on Julia this week, you don’t want to anger someone who has the possibility to beat you right before something as intense as double eviction. On the other hand, if Austin wins Head of Household, just on his own, not because he needs to win it, he is still most likely to target Steve and John anyway. Keeping Julia just slightly lessens the odds of him wanting to win it.
Julia is not the strongest Big Brother threat in the Austwins. If Steve and Johnny Mac had a chance to take out Austin or Liz this week, they one-hundred percent needed to evict them. However, they do not have that shot, pre-double eviction. They only have a chance at taking out Julia, who is not a competition or social beast. So by taking her out, you don’t eliminate a huge threat. You just make the actual threats work harder, and probably become stronger because of it.
James would become a stronger player without Meg. We have seen that James does not fear making huge moves. He also has moments of complete game awareness. Meg, however, seems to lack a lot of game perception.
This entire week, she has still looked at Austin, Liz, and Julia as possible allies, when clearly they have not stuck out their necks to help Meg and James. They have claimed they have, but Meg should judge them by their actions, not words. They have clearly been distant towards James and Meg, and spent a lot of time in the Head of Household room with Vanessa.
This pattern of James gaining some game insight, and Meg then shutting it down, has repeatedly happened in Big Brother 17. James was the first one to believe Audrey Middleton‘s claims of the Sixth Sense alliance, but Meg told him not to trust it.
James was the first one to think that maybe they should keep John and vote out Steve last week. Meg decided against it, and even told Austin how John was trying to get them to not trust him.
A lot of people believe without Meg, James has no chance of winning because he has no more true allies. Two weeks ago, people thought the same about Johnny Mac when he lost Becky Burgess. He had Steve, but his loyalties seem more aligned with Vanessa, Liz, Julia, and Austin than with John.
John did end up getting evicted after Becky left, but it also allowed him to build new relationships and maybe helped his game go longer than it would have gone with her in the game. Without Meg, James has the opportunity to join forces with a new side. He could try to work with Austin and the twins, or Steve and John. John and Steve want to work with him.
John has already discussed a plan to pull James to his side (which is why he said he would target Meg to host Julie Chen last week), while Steve works on Julia, and Vanessa keeps Austin close.
Steve and John would actually probably prefer him in the final four with them than Austin or Liz. However, with Meg in the game, James won’t be able to form any true new alliances because everyone will view Meg and him as an unshakeable pair. No one wants to be in the final three with a pair that has that type of loyalty.
Taking out Liz would have weakened Austin and Julia’s alliance. Their bond is only because of Liz, taking her out probably makes those two float to other players. Taking out Julia just makes Liz and Austin’s bond stronger. They will fight harder for each other, which makes them an even stronger duo.
The only way taking out Julia is a smart move for Steve and John is if they make a new true alliance with James and Meg. They need James and Meg to agree to take out Liz and Austin next time they win power. Otherwise, James and Meg will most likely try to pair back up with the twins and Austin, after Meg is safe again.
This puts Steve and John against five players, because Vanessa will be mad at them for going against her initial plan.
If they can get Vanessa to agree to the blindside eviction (to keep her loyalty to them), and get James and Meg to agree to an alliance to get out Liz and Austin, then they should definitely pull the trigger and take out Julia this week. If not, the plan is too risky. It might not be a glamorous move, or one that the fans want to see, but it just doesn’t work for their game right now.
However, if John and Steve win Head of Household during the double eviction and do not try to take out Liz or Austin, they’re not playing smartly at all. Thursday’s double eviction is the perfect time to take out Austin or Liz.
There is still two and a half days to change their minds, so taking out Julia could become more favorable for John and Steve later this week. We shall wait and see.